Economists interpret the summary the Fed does not want to pull the trigger again-sweets parade

Summary: economists interpret the fed to raise interest rates again and pulled the trigger for the Fed’s monetary policy meeting minutes released last month, most economists think, the minutes show that Fed policymakers are increasingly concerned about the global economic downturn and financial deterioration of the environment influence the economy of the United states. Some economists believe that the minutes show that after the start of interest rate hike last December, the Fed is now reluctant to raise interest rates again. This morning the Fed announced last month’s meeting minutes show that the decision maker said it is not clear the stock and oil prices fell, China economic slowdown, market inflation expectations and other factors will affect the U.S. economy, but it is generally believed that increased economic uncertainty. Many decision makers believe that these factors increase the downside risks of the future economy. Some senior officials worry that if China’s economic growth slows more than expected, it may drag on the economic recovery in the United states. The situation of other emerging market economies is also worrying. Canada Capital investment bank BMO Markets senior economist Sal Guatieri commented on the minutes of the meeting last month said: "in the clear financial deterioration of the environment impact on the economy and inflation, as well as the financial situation will further worsen, the Fed is reluctant to raise interest rates once again pulled the trigger." "If the outlook, the Fed may not because of a small step monetary tightening is blamed, but if the next take a series of actions (tight), may have to be blamed." The international macroeconomic consulting agency capitaleconomics (Capital Economics) chief U.S. economist Paul Ashworth pointed out that since the end of last month’s fed meeting, the financial environment has improved, but the next month 15-16 fed meeting to the possibility of raising the interest rate is still very small". It predicted: "by the middle of this year, China and the United States economic collapse concerns should be reduced, the pressure of rising prices in the United States will be more difficult to ignore."." The United States Securities chief economist Steve Amherst Pierpont Securities Stanley believes that the financial environment deteriorated sharply in September last year, last year the market sell-off that Fed policymakers. The investment research firm ITG Investment Research, Inc. chief economist Steve Blitz believes that from the beginning of last month, the minutes of the meeting, Fed policymakers further agreed that if the fed to predict the near-term economic outlook will change, it will only worsen. For the current economic growth, policymakers view swings, some people think that capital expenditures may be inhibited, and some are still expected this year will play very well. Blitz pointed out that the meeting minutes let us see, even admitted that in December last year to start raising interest rates when economic growth has slowed, China economic slowdown has become more and more impact on the global economy, the Fed’s decision makers of increasingly tight financial environment by surprise. Despite the recent changes in how the Fed affects the economic growth and the market is still maintained in

经济学家解读纪要:美联储不愿再次扣动加息扳机   对于美联储公布的上月货币政策会议纪要,经济学家大多认为,纪要显示,联储决策者越来越担心全球经济下滑和金融环境恶化影响美国经济。有经济学家认为,纪要表明,在去年12月启动加息后,现在美联储还不愿再次加息。   今日凌晨美联储公布的上月会议纪要显示,与会决策者称尚不清楚股市和油价大跌、中国经济增速放缓、市场的通胀预期走低等因素将如何影响美国经济,但普遍认为经济的不确定性增加。许多决策高官认为,这些因素增加了未来经济的下行风险。一些高官担心,若中国经济增长放缓程度超过预期,可能拖累美国经济复苏。其他新兴市场经济体的状况也令人担忧。   加拿大投行BMO Capital Markets的高级经济学家 Sal Guatieri评论上月会议纪要称:   “在更明确金融环境恶化对经济和通胀的影响,以及金融形势会不会进一步恶化以前,美联储很不愿再度扣动加息的扳机。”   “如果前景黯淡,美联储可能不会因为迈了货币紧缩的一小步而受到指责,但如果接下来采取一系列(紧缩的)行动,可能就得被怪罪了。”   国际宏观经济咨询机构凯投宏观(Capital Economics)的首席美国经济学家Paul Ashworth指出,上月美联储会议结束以来,金融环境已经好转,但下月15-16日的下次美联储会议继续加息的可能性“仍然非常小”。其预计:“到今年年中,中国和美国经济崩盘的担忧应该会减少,美国国内物价上涨的压力会更难以忽视。”   美国券商Amherst Pierpont Securities的首席经济学家Steve Stanley认为,去年9月金融环境急剧恶化,去年的市场抛售让美联储决策者还记忆犹新。   投资研究机构ITG Investment Research, Inc.的首席经济学家Steve Blitz认为,从上月会议纪要看,美联储决策者进一步同意,如果联储对美国经济的近期前景预测会有变化,那也只会是恶化。对于目前的经济增速,决策高官的看法左右摇摆,有些人认为资本支出可能受到抑制,还有些仍预计今年会表现很好。   Blitz指出,会议纪要让我们看到,即使承认去年12月启动加息时美国经济增长已经放缓,中国经济放缓成为越来越影响全球经济的问题,美联储决策层也对日趋紧张的金融环境感到意外。美联储不顾近期变化怎样影响经济增长和市场,依然维持中期经济增长高于趋势水平,通胀会回升。   华尔街见闻稍早文章提到,在1月会议纪要中,美联储共使用了14次“不确定”、12次“下行风险”或是“下行”,凸显了联储决策官员对未来经济前景的担忧。   有“美联储通讯社”之称的《华尔街日报》记者Jon Hilsenrath认为,1月会议纪要显示,美联储官员们对未来表示出一定的担心,这意味着3月加息的门槛在变高。考虑到市场大幅波动和通胀预期走低,这个门槛可能现在变得更高。 进入【新浪财经股吧】讨论相关的主题文章: